《大行報告》摩通首予京東物流(02618.HK)「增持」評級 目標價44元
摩根大通發表報告,首予京東物流(02618.HK)「增持」評級,目標價44元,代表有26%的潛在上升空間。
報告指出,京東物流是中國最大的綜合供應鏈(ISC)物流服務供應商,2020年的市場份額為2.7%,高於2018年的2%。該行認為,京東物流處於最佳位置,可以受惠中國ISC行業的結構性增長。
摩通預測,京東物流的市場份額在2025年將繼續上升至5.1%,主要由於其服務於京東的成熟記錄,幫助將庫存周轉天數保持在少於40天,並降低履行費用率;綜合和廣泛的物流基礎設施;技術能力;積累的行業知識。
該行同時預計,京東物流的收入在2020年至2023年期間將有31%的年複合增長率,長遠而言,相信其應能產生可持續的4%至6%淨利潤率(NPM)。
另摩通稱,京東物流與順豐(002352.SZ)不同,在於前者直接僱用了20萬名所有自家快遞員,並完全遵守社會保障和保險規定。因此認為其在中國物流業中,其監管風險敞口最小。
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