天風:預計李寧等國貨7月繼續高增,運動產業鏈景氣延續,調整提供上車機會
近期受極端政策恐慌情緒影響,AH運動產業鏈公司出現大幅調整,提供較好買入時點。一方面,國貨崛起,恰是民族自信的充分體現,近期中紀委點贊鴻星爾克更是激發全民支持國貨熱情,與互聯網等行業具有完全不同底層邏輯;
另一方面,以安踏李寧爲代表的國貨水準今非昔比,我們認爲已能與耐克阿迪等一線品牌抗衡,背後是品牌沉澱、設計研發及營銷供應鏈等全面提升;具體來看:
【李寧】市場擔心6-7月流水降速,我們預計6月小幅受南方疫情及618等因素幹擾但折扣保持健康,同時7月流水全面恢復積極增長,整體持續高增。近幾年李寧品牌重塑效果顯著,通過設計+科技成功佔領年輕消費者心智,製造話題帶動客單及銷量提升,預計將有效佔領阿迪市場。
【安踏體育】國旗款帶動品牌向上,渠道分級+DTC提效實現高質量成長。國旗貨助力冠軍店配合商務款、運動時尚款等升級品牌形象,提升店效同時帶動多維城市商品區隔。DTC有效提高商品週轉及售罄,打破原有各地分銷分割狀態,提升運營效率及經營利潤率。三大事業羣接力增長持續高增。
【華利集團】對標豐泰上半年業績高增,同爲Nike重要供應商中報表現可期。豐泰21H1收入同增21%,歸母淨利同增59%,今年以來運動市場需求強勁復甦趨勢已定,終端高速增長,供應鏈持續受益。短期匯率及航運影響較小,客戶及產品結構優化帶動毛利率穩定增長。
【申洲國際】越南疫情影響可控,訂單預期樂觀。2021國內產能正常,海外雖受疫情波動但公司積極轉移產能降低影響,在全球供應鏈緊張背景下,申洲稀缺製造溢價不斷提升,坐擁頂級客戶分享賽道增長紅利。
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