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有色｜碳酸鋰漲勢再起，板塊上行空間拉闊
下遊需求強勁增長，碳酸鋰價格漲勢再起。預計本輪鋰價的上行週期至少還可持續一年以上，價格高度可看至12-15萬元/噸。鋰板塊的高確定性和長期成長性預計將吸引資金持續流入，我們持續看好鋰板塊的配置價值，重點推薦贛鋒鋰業和盛新鋰能，建議關注中礦資源、永興材料、融捷股份和科達製造。
▍國內電池級碳酸鋰時隔一個季度再次漲價。
7月20日，國內電池級碳酸鋰報價上漲500元/噸至8.8萬元/噸，系碳酸鋰價格自4月以來的首次上漲，受漲價刺激，7月21日鋰礦指數大漲8.7%，同時無錫不鏽鋼電子交易中心“碳酸鋰2110”（即交收期爲2021年10月的碳酸鋰）價格大漲9.85%至11.7萬元/噸，已顯著領先現貨市場價格，也反映出市場對價格持續上漲的預期。
▍碳酸鋰漲價驗證下遊需求保持強勁，且增量顯著。
與氫氧化鋰供應主要依賴鋰精礦提鋰不同，碳酸鋰的原料來源更多樣，包括鹽湖滷水、雲母礦等。二季度以來國內碳酸鋰產量增長顯著，單月產量超過2萬噸，較2020年平均水平增加40%，但進入三季度仍面臨供應緊張局面，價格因此得以順利上漲。這表明下遊正極材料行業對鋰原料需求大幅增長，參考國內正極材料企業的擴產計劃，預計2021年下半年對鋰原料需求較上半年將增加30%以上。
▍預計鋰行業供應短缺局面今明兩年難以緩解，價格向上動力充足。
今明兩年鋰供應增長主要來自南美鹽湖提鋰產能，包括雅寶公司、SQM和贛鋒鋰業的擴產項目，但以上產能要到2022年下半年才能形成有效供應，預計鋰供應緊張的局面在較長時間內仍無法緩解，目前看不到任何壓制鋰價的因素。我們預計本輪鋰價有望上漲至12-15萬元/噸的區間，價格的拐點最快要在2022年下半年出現，且有望在下遊需求持續超預期的拉動下持續更長。鋰價上行的時間和空間都較大。
▍鋰是電池產業鏈中漲價確定性最高的環節之一，板塊高景氣預計持續。
近期中遊電池材料企業相繼公佈了規模龐大的擴產計劃，正極材料的產能擴張門檻邁入10萬噸甚至20萬噸級別，相應的鋰鹽需求也將進入5萬噸甚至10萬噸量級，反觀國內鋰鹽擴產情況，多數企業擴產節奏仍爲1-2萬噸級別的小步前進，兩者巨大的錯配將使得鋰鹽的供應矛盾日趨嚴重。鋰作爲電池產業鏈上確定性最強的環節，預計將吸引資金的持續流入，板塊的高景氣格局有望持續。
▍風險因素：
下遊需求增長不及預期；上遊礦山/鹽湖增產超預期。
▍投資策略：
下遊需求強勁增長，碳酸鋰價格漲勢再起，板塊熱度持續。從供需基本面分析，預計本輪鋰價的上行週期至少還可持續一年以上，價格上漲高度有望隨着下遊需求的不斷超預期繼續擡升。鋰板塊的高確定性和長期成長性預計將吸引資金的持續流入，推動公司股價繼續上行。
我們持續看好鋰板塊的配置價值，選股邏輯上除了前期重點推薦的鋰礦自給率高，業績增長確定性強的標的外，建議圍繞公司“預期差”進行配置，包括企業獲取上遊鋰資源的預期差和國內鹽湖提鋰企業在技術和產能規劃上的預期差。重點推薦贛鋒鋰業和盛新鋰能，建議關注中礦資源、永興材料、融捷股份和科達製造。
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