蘇文電能(300982):“雙碳”長期加持 電力EPCO啟航
公司目前圍繞電力建設及後端運維市場需求,着力推進行業獨特的EPCO(設計、工程、設備、服務一體化)商業模式。伴隨公司設計業務的帶動作用逐步顯現,同時跨區域業務和O 端市場逐漸放量,在“雙碳”目標推動長期電能替代及電能管理的趨勢下,公司長期成長空間開啟。考慮到公司在手訂單有望支撐業績持續高增長,給予公司2021 年30x PE,對應目標價66.9 元,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。公司概覽:立足江蘇面向全國,打造獨特的EPCO 服務商。公司深耕電力諮詢設計業務十餘年,逐步完善資質,打造電力EPCO 全產業鏈平台。全新模式下設計、供應、建設、服務四位一體,業務規模快速擴大,2016-2020 年,公司營業收入複合增速為38%,歸母淨利潤複合增速為62%;2020 年度,公司實現營收13.69 億元(同比+38.21%),實現歸母淨利潤2.37 億元(同比+86.53%)。目前,公司已構建起依託江蘇、邁向全國的區域業務格局。行業分析:“雙碳”背景下,電能替代下的建設需求與能源數字化升級共振。“雙碳”目標下,“十四五”電源電網建設有望繼續維持高位、下游電能替代持續加碼助力用電量持續走高、節能模式有望迎來長足發展。在此基礎上,預計2021 年電力勘察設計合同規模及行業收入規模將繼續維持增長,總包模式佔比穩健提升。公司背靠我國經濟發達省份江蘇,跨區域戰略率先輻射長三角地區,區位優勢明顯;行業現有資質壁壘較高,能源數字化需求料將催生O 端市場迎來爆發,樣板項目有望成為下游拓展的敲門磚。經營分析:四重優勢積累,成長空間開啟。公司先發優勢明顯,已率先佈局形成了行業獨特的EPCO 一站式解決方案能力;已有下游案例豐富,多下游樣板工程背書,複製化能力可期;公司現有資質較為完整,處在民營企業中相對領先梯隊,技術實力雄厚。同時,公司已逐步開啟跨區域市場佈局,進一步打開成長空間,未來有望推進邊際成本改善,進一步提升盈利能力。風險因素:局部地區疫情出現反覆;電源及電網投資出現波動;用電量增長放緩;跨區域戰略推進不及預期;智能用電服務發展不及預期;行業競爭加劇。投資建議:公司打造獨特的電力EPCO 模式,立足江蘇,面向全國,在電能替代與能源數字化背景下,成長空間持續開啟。預計公司2021-2023 年實現歸母淨利潤3.13/4.36/5.79 億元,對應EPS 為2.23/3.11/4.12 元,現價對應PE 為22.3/16.0/12.1 倍。考慮到公司在手訂單有望支撐業績持續快速成長,以及電力EPCO 企業較傳統EPC 企業存在的高壁壘、高協同以及業務數字化延展性,給予公司2021 年30x PE 作為公司合理估值,對應目標價66.9 元,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。
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