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大摩:上調招商局港口及中遠海運港口目標價 料估值重評持續

摩根士丹利發表研究報吿,指考慮內地集裝箱航運量利好及潛在銷售均價向上,上調內地港口股盈測及目標價,重申予招商局港口(0144.HK)“增持”評級,目標價由12.1港元升至14.5元;予中遠海運港口(1199.HK)“與大市同步”評級,目標價由5.17元升至6.43元。

報吿稱,內地港口股多年來的向下重評已開始逆轉。過去六個月股價追落後,受惠強勁出口及估值重評。本年至今招商局港口累升32%,中遠海運港口累升17%,跑贏恆指同期表現。報吿形容內地港口股基本面仍穩固。本年至今內地港口集裝箱吞吐量按年同期升18.1%,受惠強勁出口及低基數。該行料下半年內地出口貨值按年升幅將放緩至約10%,低於上半年料約14%,主因內地供應鏈強勁,但海外生產受疫情反彈進一步影響;以及全球經濟及消費持續復甦。此外,該行料港口定價有上行空間,港口費率料受惠集裝箱航運量上行週期,人民幣升值及貨運組合改變。

該行補充,招商局港口及中遠海運港口現估值相當於預測市盈率約8倍,較歷史均值低出一個標準差,仍遠低於2019年水平,預測股息率料3%至5%。該行認為估值受壓,因盈利已升至超越2019年水平,並邁向進一步增長。該行料板塊估值重評持續,受惠強勁出口數據及盈利改善。

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