《季績前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)首季新業務價值升近17% 受惠內地業務強勁(更新)
花旗、高盛、瑞信等券商料友邦保險(01299.HK)將於本周五(14日)公布今年首季業績，券商料雖然新冠疫情在亞太區內持續蔓延，但由於中國內地已較早地控制新冠疫情，受惠於內地業務表現，本網綜合8間券商料友邦(01299.HK)2021年首季新業務價值(實質匯率計(AER))介乎9.672億美元至10.26億美元，較2020年首季8.41億美元，按年增15%至22%；中位數為9.8億美元，按年升16.5%。
天風證券上周報告指，友邦旗下內地業務新業務價值，於去年已佔集團總體的35%，指其在內地的經營區域拓展和差異化的發展策略將是投資者關注點，特別是友邦人壽在內地其他省份的申請能否獲批、及香港與內地通關進展等；大和料友邦旗下內地業務已成集團季內新業務價值最大貢獻地區，料天津和河北省石家莊分部於今年起可提供貢獻，並關注其在內地保險代理人數指引。
【料內地業務強 關注拓展指引】
花旗估計友邦今年首季新業務價值預測按實質匯率計可按年升16%，若按固定匯率(CER)計則按年增長10%，主要受益於內地業務所推動，該行料友邦中國季新業務價值按年增長35%，但估計香港業務首季新業務價值按年下滑16%，料泰國業務首季新業務價值按年下跌4%。
中金指，基於友邦此前已公布今年首兩個月新業務價值按年增速15%，因此市場已有預期，該行估計友邦2021年首季新業務價值按實質匯率計可按年升18%，若按固定匯率計則按年增長13%，主要受益於中國內地業務強勁增長，因受益於新舊重疾產品的切換，值得注意是2020年月份的「分轉子」後額外的預提稅，將對友邦新業務價值產生額外5%的負面影響。
該行指由於香港首季的內地遊客仍非常少，料友邦旗下香港業務的本地客戶逐漸恢復；至於其他市場方面，即使基數不低，料相當部份的市場仍可實現正增長，如今年首兩個月友邦泰國新單按年實現快速增長。
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本網綜合8間券商料友邦(01299.HK)2021年首季新業務價值(實質匯率計(AER))介乎9.672億美元至10.26億美元，較2020年首季8.41億美元，按年增15%至22%；中位數為9.8億美元，按年升16.5%。
券商│今年首季新業務價值預測(美元)│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│10.26億美元│+22%
瑞信│10.08億美元│+19.9%
中金│9.92億美元│+18%
銀河-聯昌證券│9.84億美元│+17%
摩根大通│9.76億美元│+16%
花旗│9.76億美元│+16%
高盛│9.74億美元│+15.8%
大和│9.672億美元│+15%
按友邦2020年首季新業務價值8.41億美元(實質匯率跌28%)計
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