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高盛:維持友邦(1299.HK)116港元目標價 評級買入
格隆匯 05-10 12:44

高盛發表研究報吿,友邦保險(1299.HK)將於週五(14日)開市前公佈首季業績,預計首季新業務價值(VONB)為9.74億美元,按實質匯率(AER)計同比增16%,按固定匯率計(CER)增10%。由於香港內地關口限制仍然存在,加上內地遊客的銷售在去年首季佔銷售額約30%,香港可能會成為首季度唯一按年下降的市場,預計跌20%。該行預計,香港本地客户羣出現正增長,主要受銷量驅動。

高盛微調友邦保險2021/22財年的預測,以反映2020財年業績的實際和最新投資,將2023財年的盈測提高9%,以反映今年初至今美元債券收益率上升,展望更高的運營利潤;目標價維持116港元,以及買入評級。

該行指,其他市場方面,按固定匯率計,預計首季內地的新業務價值按年升27%,馬來西亞按年升26%,因為考慮到去年首季度,這兩個市場受影響最大。

高盛預計,鑑於1及2月VONB同比增長15%,3月份中國大陸的經濟放緩,反映了整個行業自一月份的強勁起步之後,增長開始正常化。如果友邦保險能夠在第一季度實現增長率達到15%或更高,認為意味着友邦3月份在內地的增長勢頭強勁,相對許多中國的人壽保險公司則在3月份銷售疲軟。這將進一步證實高盛觀點,與大眾市場相比,高端市場的需求仍然保持彈性。

該行表示,從2020年第二季度開始,費用超支對利潤率開始產生負面影響,預計這一趨勢將會逆轉,因為友邦調整其運營規模,銷售開始增長。利潤擴大至回覆2020年前的水平,將是2021財年VONB增長的重要推動力。

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