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瑞銀:綠城管理控股(9979.HK)是新型輕資產模式的領軍者,首予“買入”評級及目標價5.1港元
格隆匯 04-21 09:36

瑞銀髮研報指,首次覆蓋中國物業管理公司暨行業領軍者綠城管理控股(9979.HK),公司2022年的市盈率為8.2倍,而物管行業2022年市盈率為26.3倍。基於迴歸分析,該行給予綠城管理“買入”評級及目標價5.1港元,對應12倍2022年市盈率。

瑞銀指出,在“三條紅線”和“土地集中供應”的要求下,房地產開發商仍然可以通過輕資產、反週期的新商業模式——項目管理實現增長。該行認為投資者可能過於關注基於項目的收入而忽視了滲透潛力,而該行預測到2030年項目管理收入將達1000億元人民幣,這意味着2020-30財年複合年增長率為13%。

此外,瑞銀還預計綠城管理的市場份額將從2019年的22%增加到2025年的30%。主要由於:1)龐大的在管總建築面積可確保約四年的收入;2)優質的商業項目使其定價較周邊溢價40%左右;3)擁有公認的品牌、豐富的經驗以及合格的承包商和供應商網絡;4)參與政府項目。瑞銀預計公司2020-22年商業/政府項目收入的複合年增長率為30%/44%,並料公司將保持65%的高派息率。

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