《大行報告》大摩料騰訊(00700.HK)首季非國際財務準則純利按年升21% 降目標價至800元
摩根士丹利發表報告指,展望騰訊(00700.HK)首季收入達1,317億人民幣將年升22%(符合市場同業預期),估計其按非國際財務準則計算經營溢利按年升上17%至415.33億人民幣,料騰首季非國際財務準則純利328.84億人民幣按年升21%(按季跌1%)、估計其首季純利336.39億人民幣按年升16%(按季跌43%)。該行將其2021至2023年經營溢利預測降3-4%,以反映新遊戲產品線及短期廣告方面的阻礙。
該行維持對騰訊「增持」評級,目標價由820元降至800元,相當於2022年非國際財務準市盈率34倍,為過去五年區間水平的中間點。
該行將騰訊2021年收入預測降2%至5,820億人民幣,意味將按年增21%,主要因為遊戲產品線的時間表可見性有限,加上短期廣告行業亦面對阻礙,估計今年全年其毛利率將為44.7%,主要因為線上廣告毛利率基數較高,加上新業務整合亦會攤薄毛利率表現。料全年經營溢利將按年升22%至1,770億人民幣。
在增值服務業務方面,大摩料公司今年首季相關收入將按年升17%至730億人民幣,而手遊收入則按年升18%(按季升12%),對比2020年首季按年增長64%。廣告業務收入方面,該行料相關業務首季收入將為214億元按年增21%,其中社交廣告升24%、媒體廣告升5%,不過該行將全年廣告收入預測降3%,以反映教育廣告方面等影響。但該行料微信朋友圈自11月起逐步推出第五則廣告,料有助緩和風險。(el/w) ~
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