《大行報告》高盛首予農夫山泉(09633.HK)「買入」評級 目標價48元
高盛發表報告,首予農夫山泉(09633.HK)「買入」投資評級,及目標價48元,此相當預測2026年預測市盈率40倍,該行預計農夫山泉將繼續在內地包裝水的核心領域中提升市場份額,並進入中國規模1,500億美元的軟性飲品(無酒精飲料)市場的其他部分,以發揮品牌,產品創新和分銷方面的主要優勢。
該行認為,農夫山泉有三個主要的增長驅動因素可支持該行對其2020年至2025年銷售複合增長率17%、同期每股盈利複合年增長率20%預測,並估計農夫山泉在內地水飲料市場份額,可從2019年的21%提升到2025年近30%。
高盛指,農夫山泉藉著與其他飲料進行交叉銷售以細分市場,如茶和功能性飲料,以及進入內地偏遠城市,由於其較高的利潤率預期,該行料農夫山於2022至2023年每股收益預測較證券同業預期高出0%至3%。由於利潤率和估值問題(農夫山泉目前估值相當於預測2022年市盈率50倍),高盛指該股年初至今已修正了30%,但預計該公司強大的定價能力和規模擴張,將部分抵消成本上升帶來的短期利潤率不利影響。
該行料農夫山泉於2021年至2023年各年每股盈測各0.55、0.65及0.79元人民幣。
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