一文綜合大行於中行(03988.HK)公布業績後最新評級、目標價及觀點
中國銀行(03988.HK)早市股價偏好，半日升0.7%收2.94元。中行昨(30日)收市後公布去年業績，純利按年升2.9%至1,928.7億元人民幣，高於本網綜合4間券商預測上限的1,914.68億元人民幣；每股盈利0.61元人民幣。派每股末期息0.197元人民幣。
中行去年營業收入按年升3.2%至5,676.47億元人民幣，低於中金及摩通早前預測5,687.7億及5,707.85億元人民幣。去年淨利息收入按年升6.6%至4,159.18億元人民幣，手續費及佣金收支淨額按年升2.3%至755.22億元人民幣。平均總資產回報率為0.87%，按年跌5點子，淨資產收益率為10.61%，跌84點子。淨息差為1.85%跌4點子，成本收入比為26.73%跌1.27個百分點。
中行去年不良貸款率為1.46%升9點子，不良貸款撥備覆蓋率為177.84%，跌5.02個百分點。截至年底核心一級資本充足率為11.28%，跌2點子。中行副行長陳懷宇表示，去年受疫情影響，令不良貸款反彈，其中內地集中在製造業、房地產等，海外則為油氣和航空業等，但第四季不良貸款已較第三季改善，相信有持續回復趨勢。
【業績優預期 股息回報佳】
匯豐環球研究發表報告表示，上調對中行H股目標價，由3.6元上調至3.9元，評級「買入」。該行指出，中行去年第四季淨息差及貸款損失撥備率跌幅均低於同業，資產比率改善，股息亦較去年增加。但負面而言，中行撥備前經營溢利增長遜同業，資產增長在人民幣升值下放緩，存款更在去年下半年收縮。該行上調對中行今明兩年盈利預測7.6%及6.1%。
瑞銀亦指，中行去年第四季撥備前經營溢利僅增長3.5%，差於其餘三大國有商銀平均增速10%水平。該行料中行淨息差大致維持穩定，且不良貸款率、關注類貸款迕及逾期貸款率均出現下降。瑞銀維持對中行「中性」評級及2.6元目標價不變。
美銀證券表示，上調對中行H股目標價，由3.7元上調至3.85元，評級「買入」。該行指，中行去年一級資本債分派前純利按年升2.9%，高於該行預期6%及市場共識13%。撥備前溢利則按年升3.8%，符合該行預期。派息率按年升0.9個百分點至32.1%，每股派息較預期高13%，指中行毛股息率為8厘於同業中屬較高。該行上調對中行今明兩年盈利預測5%，又認為中行高股息率及增長穩定。
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本網最新綜合5間券商對其投資評級、目標價及觀點：
券商│投資評級│目標價((港元)
花旗│買入│4.33元
匯豐環球研究│買入│3.6元->3.9元
美銀證券│買入│3.7元->3.85元
里昂│買入│3.8元
瑞銀│中性│2.6元
券商│觀點
花旗│去年第四季盈利勝預期，受惠淨息差及資產質素
匯豐環球研究│淨息差及資產質素堅韌
美銀證券│盈利增長復甦急速，股息回報吸引
里昂│上調今明兩年盈利預測5.9%及6.7%
瑞銀│盈利增長符預期，但撥備前經營溢利增長動力遜同業
(fc/w)
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