《大行報告》麥格理一舉降農夫山泉(09633.HK)評級至「跑輸大市」 目標價升至29.8元
麥格理發表研究報告,指農夫山泉(09633.HK)去年收入按年跌4.8%,遜市場預期3%,純利則升6.6%,勝市場預期1.5%。該行稱,欣賞管理層持續推出新產品及在飲品行業鞏固領導地位的努力,但盈利展望不足以合理化其高達明年預測市盈率48倍的估值。該行料其盈利增長在低基數下將於今年上半年見頂,並將面對原材料成本增加壓力。該行一舉下調其投資評級由「跑贏大市」降至「跑輸大市」,目標價由27元升至29.8元,相當於明年預測市盈率36倍。
報告引述管理層稱,指引今年收入增長介乎15%至20%,低於市場預期的24%;長期增長料約中雙位數水平。此外,在加大推廣投資力度下,料其經營利潤率上半年見頂,明年兩年逐步走低。該行上調其今明兩年盈測14%及11%,以反映其他開支及一次性損失料不在今明兩年發生。
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