碳中和下的煤炭:無近憂,需遠慮
本文來自格隆匯專欄:中信證券研究,作者:祖國鵬
“能源雙控”政策預計“十四五”將進一步抑制煤炭消費增速,煤炭消費在2025年前後實現達峯。在產能低位擴張的背景下,“十四五”期間行業尚可維持供需平衡,但遠期看在“碳中和”推進過程中,煤炭需求大幅下滑不可避免,長期而言,行業中成本曲線最低端的龍頭公司或率先轉型成功的公司有望勝出。
▍煤炭消費或在2025年前後達峯,遠期有需求壓力。
從目前能源結構看,煤炭消費佔比達到57%,在“能源雙控”的政策作用下,預計2025年煤炭消費將達到42億噸左右的峯值,之後逐步下降,2025~2030年的年均複合增速為-1.51%。隨着新能源發電和儲能技術的全面成熟以及下游工業的脱碳,預計2060年“碳中和”實現的情形下,煤炭消費量將降至約3~5億噸的水平,保留的煤炭消費主要是化工行業用煤以及能源應急響應的需求。
▍對中短期景氣不必悲觀,“十四五”供需仍可實現平衡。
儘管長期煤炭需求面臨壓力,煤價中樞也有下行壓力。但未來五年行業需求仍有小幅增長空間,而供給側在新增產能核准節奏、環保和安監的約束下,或可保持低速增長,“十四五”期間行業可以維持供需平衡的狀態,部分年份也可能出現供需錯配的情況導致煤價上漲。
▍行業分化或進一步加劇,轉型路徑仍待明晰。
在“碳達峯”邁向“碳中和”的過程中,除了礦井資源衰竭帶來的自然退出外,需求下降或將引發煤價下行——虧損產能增加——高成本產能退出——供需平衡等一輪輪週期循環,行業企業的分化或不斷加劇,最終低成本的龍頭公司長期勝出,獲得寡頭地位,實現超額利潤。目前煤炭企業已開始應對轉型,或通過設立能源轉型投資基金佈局投資新能源,或在煤化工領域繼續向精細化工產業鏈延伸,或通過焦化產業鏈切入氫能源等領域,但從目前實踐看,煤企轉型還處於嘗試階段,尚未形成明確的轉型路徑。
▍風險因素:
政策制定的減排目標加快,加速煤炭需求下降。企業轉型成本過高。
▍投資策略:關注長週期的“剩者為王”以及轉型中獲得“先發優勢”的公司。
近幾年能源結構轉型和長期需求減速的預期是壓制煤炭板塊估值的主要因素。“碳中和”又會強化這一預期,板塊長期估值整體難以有效提升。但是低開採成本的龍頭公司在長期週期波動中可以強化優勢地位,同時長期資本開支下降,現金流累積充裕,長期依然有價值邏輯,中國神華、陝西煤業是位於行業成本曲線最低端的動力煤企業,山西焦煤預計長期可鞏固低成本的煉焦煤龍頭地位。另外,在轉型的公司中,美錦能源轉型氫能板塊的力度較大,有望形成先發優勢,值得長期關注。
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