摩根士丹利：微盟集團(02013.HK)SaaS業務符合市場預期 上調目標價至25港元
摩根士丹利日前發佈研報，指出微盟集團(02013.HK)2020年報中，關鍵指標SaaS收入和營銷毛收入均與我們的預測一致。摩根士丹利認為微盟在SaaS中持久的高增長以及其在市場上取得成功的戰略的良好執行，上調目標價至25港元。
SaaS業務保持快速增長
摩根士丹利表示，微盟集團SaaS業務保持快速增長，SaaS收入在上半年可比基礎上實現了43％的同比增長，符合我們的預期。智慧零售是主要增長動力，貢獻了2020年SaaS訂閲解決方案收入的20％，佔比對比2019年提高超過10個百分點。由於新冠疫情影響，SaaS流失率從2019年的22％上升到2020年的26％。集團管理層認為這只是暫時的問題，在更多的大客户的支撐下，預計2021年會有所改善。由於業務的調整和客户升級，SaaS業務的ARPU在2020年下半年增長了20％。微盟的商業雲產品可幫助商户對接多種流量渠道，包括微信，抖音和快手。
精準營銷現金流表現好
微盟集團精準營銷的毛收入與我們的預測一致，現金流表現良好，107億人民幣的精準營銷毛收入與我們的預測持平。微盟根據其TSO(流量——SaaS——運營)全鏈路營銷戰略，將淨額法重新歸類為數字商業中的商家解決方案。微盟集團相信，通過廣吿帶來的流量將被商家視為增值服務。
2021年展望財務：微盟集團預計SaaS相關業務將增長50%，在可比基礎上，新收購的海鼎將增長20%。預計智慧零售業績貢獻在2021年將達到30%，2025年將達到50%。產品方面微盟集團計劃在2021年推出一系列新產品，包括微盟雲PaaS產品、垂直解決方案智慧美業和智慧酒店、CRM產品銷氪、微盟營銷雲升級等，同時集團繼續加大研發力度，豐富產品以及實施TSO戰略。
摩根士丹利下調針對目標市場的淨利潤假設，並將SOTP估值從2021年12月前推至2022年3月，將微盟集團目標價格上升到25港元。
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