华侨银行:未见北水持续流出 港全年零售销售料弹10%至15%
华侨银行经济师谢栋铭及华侨永亨银行经济师李若凡发表报告,指股市大幅下跌,主要是因为美国长债收益率持续上升,引发科技股抛售潮,从而拖累全球股市回调。受市场波动性上升的影响,近期新股招股反应不太热烈,而南向资金流入的规模亦有所减小。因此减弱的港元需求,叠加全面走强的美元,令美元/港元现价上升至近一年高位逾7.7600的水平。
然而,至今该行仍未见到持续的南向资金净流出。另市场接下来将迎来几个大型IPO如百度(BIDU.US),以及季结。因此,港元需求可能增加,从而帮助缓和港汇的下行压力。中期而言,如果全球流动性保持充裕,同时经济前景渐趋乐观,那麽即将推行的恒生指数优化以及短期内可能推出的南向债券通或会吸引更多资金流入,继而有助限制港汇和港息的跌幅。因此,华侨银行维持今年美元/港元现价将在7.75至7.80区间内波动的预期。
经济方面,由於本地疫情缓和、政府放宽社交限制措施,以及本地疫苗接种计划开启,2月私营部门PMI上升至近三个月新高的50.2。上述因素加上低基数效应,可能支持零售销售额於2月录得两年来首次同比升幅。从更好的方面来看,今年下半年,若跨境旅游如预期般恢复,以及政府按计划发放电子消费券,零售业将进一步复苏。因此,该行预期今年零售销售额将增长10%至15%。
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