一文了解港交所(00388.HK)公布去年業績後最新目標價及觀點
港府昨公布建議調高股票印花稅率由0.1%升至0.13%，港交所(00388.HK)昨股價下滑8.8%後，今早股價靠穩。港交所(00388.HK)昨公布去年收入及其他收益191.9億元，按年升17.7%符預期，純利達115.05億元新高按年升22.5%，符合本網綜合17間券商預期港交所2020年純利介乎110.59億元至121億元(中位數113.85億元)；每股盈利9.11元。派第二次中期股息每股4.46元，連同第一次中期股息每股3.71元，全年股息為每股8.17元，創歷史新高。
摩根士丹利發表報告表示，政府計劃調高股票印花稅稅率，股票印花稅自0.1%上調至0.13%，料將提高港股總交易成本約15%，但認為不會改變長期波幅性呈結構上升的軌道。該行指出，上調印花稅可能會進一步阻止某些量化基金交易(佔港股交易額的很小部分)和一些投機交易，故該行下調港交所(00388.HK)今明兩年盈利預測5%，目標價相應由600元降3%至580元，維持「增持」評級。
【業績符預期 基本面仍佳】
瑞銀指出，新一份預算案中將股票印花稅由0.1%提升至0.13%，估計投資者的總交易成本將增加10%至20%，但預計對香港市場交易量的負面影響將較為溫和，僅為5%至10%，主要是由於香港股市大部分都不是超高頻率交易，加上認股權證及牛熊證仍免徵印花稅，相信是次調升幅度對於大多數散戶及機構投資者屬可以忍受範圍。
該行看好港交所不斷完善的生態系統，以吸引更多新經濟股，預期加徵印花稅3個基點，不足以令中概股改變來港第二上市計劃，但步伐可能有所放慢，仍對交易所在吸引新經濟股票的定位持樂觀態度，維持「買入」評級，將港交所的目標價由650元下調至615港元，認為預算案後的股價疲軟已反映股票印花稅的影響。
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本網綜合10間券商予港交所最新投資評級及目標價：
券商|投資評級|目標價(港元)
瑞銀|買入|650->615元
大和|買入|447.1->602元
摩根士丹利|增持|580->600元
瑞信|跑贏大市|525->590元
花旗|買入|575->580元
美銀證券|中性|482->549元
野村|中性|473.3->517.4元
摩根大通|中性|500元
高盛|沽售|410元
傑富瑞|持有|360.04元
券商|觀點
瑞銀|預期IPO資金保持穩定，股票印花稅影響已反映
大和|盈利連續第三年創新高，或進入流動性新時代
摩根士丹利|上調印花稅可能會阻止一些投機交易
瑞信|上調印花稅影響有限，交易成本僅眾多考慮因素之一
花旗|股票印花稅上調感意外，關注交易成本影響
美銀證券|強勁業績已於股價反映，上調股票印花稅長線負面
野村|去年股票成交量強勁增長，目標價上調9%
摩根大通| 上調印花稅市場反應過大，去年第四季業績勝預期
高盛|關注股票印花稅上調影響成本及現金股權周轉
傑富瑞|印花稅上調引起關注
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