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中芯國際(00981.HK)股價催化劑是什麼?
格隆匯 02-17 19:55

2021年2月12日拜登發佈承諾採用積極措施解決全球芯片短缺問題。受此消息影響2月16日港股半導體行業漲幅5.95%,美國費城半導體指數漲幅1.23%。

(圖1:香港半導體指數)

(圖2:費城半導體指數)

2020年全球缺芯已經是眾所周知的事情了,但是中芯國際股價一直承壓,以國內第二大晶圓廠為參考,華虹半導體目前PB 4.22,而中芯國際僅有1.81;中芯國際股價受壓也是不沒有原因的,主要受制於去年9月美國考慮將中芯國際納入“實體清單”,而在12月中芯國際正式被納入美國“實體清單”,市場對未來業績確定性不足的企業自然不會給予較高的估值。

(圖3:港股半導體企業價值對比)

下面我主要來講一下實體清單對中芯國際2020Q4及2021年業績的影響。

一. 實體清單影響先進工藝出貨

受實體清單及“華為”事件影響,2020Q4運付晶圓141.58萬片,環比減少1.7%,同比增加5.7%;其中先進工藝營收佔比從2020Q3 14.61%下降到2020Q4 5%;實體清單影響了公司先進工藝的出貨,同時疊加2020Q4 300mm晶圓廠房產能擴充,2020Q4公司產能利用率有所下降。

(圖4:製程工藝營收佔比)

(圖5:公司產能利用率及晶圓運付情況)

二.實體清單影響公司產能快速擴張

2021年公司計劃資本支出43億美元,主要用於產能擴張,用於成熟工藝的擴張;其中2021年底12英寸成熟製程產線擴產1萬片,成熟8英寸產線擴產不少於4.5萬片。

但需要注意的是受實體清單影響,公司進口成熟工藝設備仍需要出口許可,因此大部分設備預計在今年的下半年到貨,這導致新增產能低於預期,但一旦採購限制得以解決,公司可能上調產能擴張計劃及收入指引。

三.小結

此前實體清單打斷了全球芯片供應,受此影響,美國製造業也出現了一定問題,汽車產業因為沒辦法獲得足夠芯片導致生產開始陷入停滯,此次“承諾”解決芯片短缺問題,中芯國際作為晶圓代工廠,可以提供芯片生產的原材料,市場期待對中芯國際實體清單禁令會有所緩和。

後期需要持續關注美國對中芯國際實施的措施,若實體清單禁令有所緩和,公司有望隨着產能快速擴張疊加晶圓ASP上漲,量價齊升帶動公司業績增長,帶動整體估值上揚。

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