《大行報告》野村上調百勝中國(09987.HK)目標價至537.9元 評級「買入」
野村發表研報指,百勝中國(09987.HK)2020財年收入按年下跌6%,第四季整體同店銷售跌幅由第三季的跌6%收窄至跌4%,剔除一次性項目後全年經調整淨利潤為6.15億美元,按年減少15.6%,高於該行預期,相信主要由於分店網絡擴張加快,以及第四季利潤率勝預期所致。
管理層預期今年第一季受疫情影響,農曆新年期間出行活動及聚餐減少,但野村指出,集團手頭現金及短期投資充裕,有約43億美元,自由現金流達6.95億美元。報告指出,百勝中國通過三個品牌加快咖啡業務的擴展,預期通過與肯德基分店的協同效應,可在三、四線城市快速擴張,有長期增長潛力,因此將2021至2022財年收入增長預測提升至19.8%及8.3%。
野村認為,百勝中國將繼續受惠於數字化改革,去年肯德基及必勝客積累超過3億名線上會員,會員銷售額佔總銷售額比重由2019年的52%提升至60%,同時外帶配送佔比亦有所提升,料有助於進一步捉緊本地消費需求,加上今年目標新開1,000家新店,預計肯德基利潤率將輕微下降至16.2%,將2021年盈利預測提升2.2%,目標價由482.8元升至537.9元,評級「買入」。
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