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植耀輝: 經濟前景嚴峻美股急挫 港股今考驗二萬九關
阿思達克 02-01 10:41
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股上周五(1月29日)再度大幅波動,道指大跌620點或2%,標普500指數及納指則分別下跌1.93%及2%。全月計,道指及標普500指數則分別累跌1.7%及1.1%,納指則總算維持升勢,累升1.7%。但對後市看法則不少投資者傾向審慎,美銀美林便擔心美股或會出現10%回調。事實上,近期發生之GME事件增添市場之不確定性,加上企業季績普遍未有太大驚喜,恐怕市況仍會相當波動。

港股上周雖然一度突破30,000點關口,但未能企穩之餘,大市更是連跌四個交易日,由30,191點高位計,累積跌幅超過1,876點。而港股上周最終亦累跌1,164點或3.95%,收報28,283點。雖然一周計表現欠佳,但一月份港股仍能累升3.8%。

至於短期港股表現,嚴格上走勢仍不明朗,投資者亦要留意兩大變數。其一是外圍股市去向,特別是近期相當波動之美股。美股近期受多個因素影響,當中疫情依然嚴峻以至對經濟前景之擔憂,加上企業盈利表現,皆會對美股有舉足輕重影響,當然近期GME事件亦須關注往後之顯化情況。

另一要素則關於北水動向。近日受春節假期因素影響,內地銀根有所緊張,同時北水淨流入情況亦似有所減少,部分港股通熱門股份如吉利(00175.HK)亦出現淨流出情況。由於港股本輪升勢亦有賴北水流入,故如流入速度有所減緩,亦可能會對港股有一定影響。故現時宜先觀察港股短期能否守穩27,800至28,000點水平。

(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~

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