渣打劉健恆:失業率短期未見頂 料經濟下半年始現好轉
渣打銀行(香港)大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆出席記者會時指,疫情持續加上香港失業率短期未見頂等,認為本地經濟復甦空間有限,料次季亦難有大改善。他又補充,傳統上農曆年後招聘情況更有挑戰,而在經濟疲弱下企業壓力增加,不排除新年後受疫情影響較大的行業營運挑戰更大,料失業率年中前未必可見頂。
他相信最快到下半年隨著歐美經濟好轉、疫苗開始見效,對香港才會有較直接的提振作用。他指出上半年仍預期美國經濟或繼續疲弱,歐洲到下半年才有好轉,所以從製造業角度來看中小企對外圍看法較審慎,他預期改善或會到下半年才出現。
他續指,留意到進出口業利潤前景較差,認為是由於原材料價格過去數月升幅明顯,加上零部件供應較緊張,船運成本亦有增加,另外人民幣升值亦令出口商成本增加,利潤有收窄壓力。
在中美關係方面,劉健恆指仍需要時間觀察拜登上台後對中國的政策會如何轉變,整體而言料中美關係難有大改變,留意到在公開場合美國對中國態度仍相對強硬,認為不要太快看低中美磨擦的發展,但期望雙方關係的可預測性會比特朗普政府高,這樣營商的確定性自然可增加。
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