康師傅控股(00322.HK)：20年高速增長，長期前景穩健，維持“買入”評級
機構：華金證券
評級：買入
投資要點：
事件：受“南下”資金驅動，近期港股市場持續活躍，恆生指數創過去12個月的新高。在市場資金尋找估值窪地的邏輯下，港股的關注度持續提升。我們在此為投資者重新梳理康師傅控股的基本面和投資邏輯，以幫助投資者更好地判斷未來的趨勢和潛在機會。
上半年回顧：方便麪高增，盈利創新高。受益於規模效應和税改，方便麪H1毛利率實現30.35%（+2.19pcts）；飲料實現毛利率35.78%（+1.54pcts），主要系税改和原材料價格下降的推動。20H1實現淨利潤26.53億元，同比+47.26%，淨利潤率8.06%，同比+2.15pct，其中方便麪淨利潤率增加3.79pcts。
下半年飲料快速恢復，方便麪穩健增長。（一）隨着下半年疫情的趨緩，我們預計方便麪H2增速有所放緩，但公司下半年陸續推出5-15元之間的新品，比如湯大師、手擀麪等，提升中高價面的佈局，豐富各個價格帶品類。我們預計面全年雙位數快速增長，毛利率同比提升1-2pcts。（二）飲料方面，受益於公司直營二階逐漸有成效，同時渠道庫存較低，消費逐步恢復，飲料H2整體恢復增長，我們預計碳酸飲料保持上半年的較快增長，非碳酸飲料有更好的恢復表現，全年有望低個位數增長。產品結構方面，公司陸續推出無糖茶、低糖茶、2元喝開水、100%純果汁等，增加健康化產品，豐富新品種類。利潤率方面，全年趨勢向好，一方面PET價格持續利好飲料毛利率，同時H2去水頭減少，另一方面考慮2H19較高費用率基數和較低收入基數，費用率仍存在下行空間，飲料利潤率同比有望繼續提升。
產品升級趨勢不變，長期穩健發展可期。我們認為，當下消費市場的空間增長趨勢不變，包括三四線城市的消費力崛起以及一二線城市的消費升級。對於公司來説，產品升級趨勢沒有變，同時中高端消費動力逐漸顯現，方便麪的高端化逐步站穩，速達麪館如期實現高速增長；根據統計局數據顯示，飲料零售額（限額以上）二、三、四季度分別同比增長9.8%、10.1%和13.4%，消費者對於中高端的飲料需求逐步有所提升，公司也增加新品的渠道鋪貨率以及推出高端果汁新品，滿足不同消費者的需求。總體來看，公司深耕快消品行業多年，實力強勁，產品方面繼續完善方便麪和飲品的高端佈局，渠道方面持續數字化和扁平化，更加貼近消費者，精準投放費用，來把握市場機遇和提升企業盈利水平。我們依然看好隨着產品結構升級趨勢下公司的穩健發展。
投資建議：當前股價對應2021年的PE和EV/EBIDA分別為15X和9X，考慮公司2020年較好的營業表現，我們預測公司2020年至2022年利潤增長每股收益分別為0.76、0.78和0.82元，維持買入-B建議。
風險提示：市場競爭加劇、高端產品銷售不及預期、食品安全問題、地緣政治風險。
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