華虹半導體(01347.HK):8寸景氣上行,12寸持續擴張,給予“買入”評級
機構:廣發證券
評級:買入
核心觀點:
看好21年8英寸晶圓代工產業持續景氣。本輪8英寸產業景氣上行核心邏輯與上一輪(3Q16-2Q18)背景相似,皆因需求回暖下產業並無明顯新增產能所致,鑑於21年下游需求大概率將呈復甦基調,8英寸產能緊缺或將持續加劇。中長期維度,公司亦受益電動車智能化與物聯網的持續滲透,對應無錫新廠產能爬坡或優於預期,同時公司或將於未來兩年持續擴充無錫新廠產能。
估值性價比仍佳,“以時間換空間”為後續投資邏輯。當前公司股價已由“南下資金”主導,整體估值(1.9倍PB,LF,考慮科創板迴歸預期)雖已達歷史高位(1.7-1.8倍PB,LF),然相對大陸8英寸上市公司而言,公司性價比仍佳。鑑於本輪景氣上行較高的能見度,我們認為公司後續將演繹”以時間換空間”投資邏輯。
上調至“買入”評級。鑑於當前產能緊缺及後續景氣度仍將上行,我們認為8英寸代工產業於1月份可望漲價5-10%,同時12英寸部分節點或將商議漲價(產業缺貨持續,智能機、汽車於服務器等終端需求同比迎來低基數效應增長)。我們預測公司20/21年歸母淨利潤分別為0.84/0.48億美元。參考本輪景氣週期中聯電(2.7倍PB,LF)、世界先進(6.3倍PB,LF)的估值水平,我們以2.7倍PB(考慮科創板迴歸,定價基礎參考中芯國際,對應21末歸母淨資產)作為公司合理價值判斷的基礎。綜上,公司合理價值為58.3港元/股,上調至“買入”評級。
風險提示。全球宏觀不及預期的風險,無錫廠折舊政策不確定性風險。

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