新特能源(01799.HK):籌劃境內上市,助力長遠發展,維持“推薦”評級
機構:方正證券
評級:推薦
事件:公司啟動新特能源A股上市籌備工作,包括但不限於可行性方案的論證、組織編制上市方案、簽署籌劃過程中涉及的相關協議等上市相關事宜,並在制定境內上市方案後將相關上市方案及與上市有關的其他事項分別提交公司及新特能源董事會、股東大會審議。
核心觀點:
境內上市提升估值,助力長遠發展
本次籌劃新特能源境內上市事宜,有助於提升公司估值,對標A股可比公司;此外,藉助A股市場融資平台,有助於公司長遠發展。
多晶硅量價齊升,長協鎖定產能
公司多晶硅產品質量備受認可,兼有優秀生產能力和自備電廠電價帶來的成本優勢。目前公司多晶硅總產能8萬噸/年,下游供應偏緊,價格有望維持高位。公司簽訂長協,已鎖定21-22年全部產能。後續技改推進後,有望繼續提升產能,並進一步降低成本,增厚硅料業務盈利。
新能源運營重心傾斜BOO,ECC毛利率穩步改善
公司新能源BOO電站運營業務毛利率高達65-70%,將成為公司新能源運營業務的發展重心。2020H1公司已建成BOO電站規模850MW,在建容量達1925MW,逐步併網後盈利有望大幅提升。ECC電站業務毛利率水平較低,公司在收縮體量的同時,加強成本管控,毛利率穩步改善。
投資建議:公司是國內多晶硅料巨頭和優秀的新能源解決方案商,預計公司20-22年淨利潤為5.65/19.09/18.63億元,歸母淨利潤為4.69/17.18/17.14億元,對應EPS0.39/1.43/1.43元/股,對應PE37.67/10.28/10.31倍。維持“推薦”評級。
風險提示:硅料價格不及預期、BOO電站併網進程不及預期、產能擴產不及預期、下游光伏裝機需求波動等風險。

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