《大行報告》瑞銀首予微盟(02013.HK)「買入」評級 目標價22元
瑞銀發表研究報告,首予微盟(02013.HK)「買入」評級,認為公司在加速發展內地SaaS行業中擁有領先地位,相信其將受惠於企業數字化潮流,隨著越來越多的商家轉向微信小程序以獲取成本更低的私域流量,令微盟增長前景更加明朗。
該行指,微盟現價為2021年預測市銷率的11倍,較同行有折讓,相信是由於SaaS業務正處於投資階段,因此投資者對其業務模式持謹慎態度,預計其2020至2023年淨付費商家複合年均增長率為20%,ARPU複合年均增長率為16%,隨著業務擴展到更多垂直行業,料公司旗下SaaS銷售複合年增長率可達41%。
瑞銀認為,隨著微盟SaaS業務規模擴大,毛利率將在2023年之前逐步恢復到55%,考慮到微盟為擴大業務而對銷售和分銷進行大量投資,預計SaaS業務的短期經營虧損將在短期內擴大,但由於購置成本和ARPU之間的差距將隨著時間逐漸收窄,估計2023年經營溢利率將大幅增長至15%,予目標價22元,此按現金流折現率作估值,相當預測今年市銷率13倍。
該行估計微盟於2020年至2024年純利預測各1.54億、2.84億、4.58億、7.39億及14.67億元人民幣。
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