民生教育(01569 .HK)：進一步收購電大在線，OMO 賦能，維持“買入”評級，目標價1.5港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：1.5港元
投資要點
進一步收購電大在線50%股權，繼而擁有電大在線全部股權。公司於2020年3月以4.2億元收購TCL教育網100%的股權從而持有電大在線50%的股權。公司於2020年12月進一步以4.1億元收購電大在線50%的股權。兩次交易合計對價8.3億，對應電大在線2019年未經審計税後淨利5479萬元15倍PE，PS約1倍，估值優於市場平均水平。至此，公司在線教育佈局包括了民生在線，電大在線（奧鵬教育），絲綢之路及都學網絡。
實現OMO發展，集團化運營有望提振線上盈利能力。電大在線是中國領先的在線教育服務運營機構，學生人數第一，覆蓋31個省1800多家學習中心，合作院校達30多家高校及9所開放大學。電大在線旗下奧鵬教育主要從事繼續教育、IT教育（慕課網）、教師教育、考試服務和職業教育。電大在線2018/2019/2020年1-9月收入達7.93/8.13/5.94億元；税後淨利潤為5,511/5,479/4,680萬元；淨利潤率為6.9%/6.7%/7.9%。公司集團化發展有望優化電大在線費用結構，提振其盈利水平。公司預計電大在線FY21/FY22每年可實現逾15%的收入增長及30%的利潤增長。
校園教育突破9.3萬人，滇池學院成功轉設。集團校園教育學校20/21學年招生計劃達36199人（不包括成人教育），同比增3588人，其中本科計劃數增1710人至18698人。截至2020年11月，集團20/21學年在校人數突破9.3萬人。此外，滇池學院於2020年9月成功轉設，2021年及之後將不再支付管理費給雲南大學，可直接增厚公司FY21利潤約4000萬。
公司線上+線下戰略轉型穩步推進，維持“買入”評級，目標價1.5港元。公司對電大在線的收購可進一步增厚業績，增強線上線下協同效應，實現校園+在線教育雙輪驅動。公司滇池學院已成功轉設，重慶工商大學派斯學院轉設亦穩步推進。考慮電大在線及都學網絡並表，及滇池學院轉設補償費用一次性計提，不考慮四所潛在並表學校，預計公司FY2020-FY2022歸母淨利達2.1/6.3/8.2億元；若不考慮轉設產生的補償費用計提，公司FY20核心利潤達4.5億元。維持“買入”評級，目標價1.5港元，對應2021-2022PE分別為8/6.2倍，估值處行業低位，具備安全邊際。
風險提示:1）、教育政策變動；2）、招生數不及預期；3）、自建、收購進程不及預期；4）學校舉辦者權益變更不及預期
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