現代牧業(01117.HK)：新週期高彈性新成長，給予“買入”評級，目標價3.31港元
機構：華西證券
評級：買入
目標價：3.31港元
主要觀點:
公司來到新的經營週期拐點
經歷上一輪 2013-2014 年原奶價格短期大幅漲跌之後，2016-2018 年公司伴隨行業經歷持續深度調整，期間公司產能穩定，奶牛單產、公斤奶成本等牧場核心經營指標持續優化。2018 年秋季開始國內原奶價格進入逐步上行通道，2019 年公司盈利改善、經營現金流明顯提升。2020 下半年以來原奶價格漲幅持續擴大，公司作為國內規模最大的奶牛養殖企業之一，牧場經營管理水平行業領先並歷經長達 4 年的深度調整優化後，將充分受益於本輪奶價上漲，短期利潤高彈性，3-5 年中長期成長性逐步明確。
本輪奶價上漲持續性強
短期，預計疫情之後下游乳製品需求增長加速，原奶供給端，2019 年 10 月以來回補的存欄產能最早也要到 2022 年才能釋放，因此至少 2021 年原奶供應局面是緊張的；同時考慮飼料價格上漲、進口牛源緊張等因素壓制，我們認為存欄回補不可持續。中長期角度，下游乳製品需求趨向於結構性增長，越來越依賴於國內原奶供應鏈；2014 年奶價高點回落之後至今供給端經歷長期調整，原奶分配格局已發生深刻變化，上下游綁定加深，上游產能擴張將主要基於下游需求增長計劃、盲目性降低，因此預計中長期奶價波動性降低、價格中樞上行；同時供給端格局也更有利於大型規模化牧場，疊加經營週期改善，規模化牧場來到較好的投資時點。
投資建議
上游奶牛養殖企業將受益於本輪原奶價格持續上漲，現代牧業經過長達 4 年的調整優化之後，抗風險能力更強，資產質量更優，利潤彈性更大，中長期成長性也逐步明確。預計 2020-2022 年 公 司 收 入 62.6/71.3/80.1 億元，同比+12.9%/+14.5%/+12.4%，歸母淨利 7.3/10.9/14.9 億元，同比+113%/+49%/+36%。EPS 分別為 0.11/0.17/0.23 元。預計 2021年公司奶牛頭均盈利接近 2014 年高點水平，我們採用頭均市值法給予公司 1 年目標市值 HKD 214 億元，目標價 HKD 3.31 元，較現價+49%空間，首次覆蓋給予買入評級。
風險提示
疫情反覆，牛羣疾病，食品安全。
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