You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
瑞银料今年全球GDP反弹增长近6% 中国增长8.2%
阿思达克 01-12 15:10
瑞银亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛表示,展望疫情於次季逐步得以控制,料全球经济自第二、三季度起逐步反弹,料全年全球GDP由去年的下跌3.5%至4%,2021年反弹至增长近6%,中国经济亦将持续复苏,预测今年及明年中国实际 GDP增长各8.2%及6%。

她又预期,今年中国宏观政策将开始正常化,人行将不会过度使用利率手段,流动性亦会较去年有所收紧,整体方向较为审慎,并加注重控风险及降杠杆。去年中国经济已现复苏迹象,但步伐不平衡,工业生产及投资回升速度较消费表现快,她解释疫情影响国民就业及收入,而固定资产投资主要受政府支撑,相信今年复苏情况会逆转,双循环战略下消费增长将快於投资增幅,预计「十四五」期间GDP年均增长目标约为5%。

就拜登即将正式上台,她指出,中美关系料可缓和,两国预期未来会增加对话,有助於降低不确定因素,但指出由於美国国内问题不少,相信後美国新政府上场後将维持现行关税及科技限制。瑞银预期美元持续走弱,人民币兑美元汇率於今年中或升至6.2,至年底回落至6.4,但中国或逐步作出资本流出限制,抵消部分影响。

去年各国「放水」,市场流动性充裕,带动推动房地产投资等资产价格上升。汪涛预期,去年内地已推出「三条红线」等调控措施,今年内地楼市政策将温和调整,从而防范楼价急升;看好铜、铝等工业金属大宗商品交易投资,料将受惠於工产生产复苏。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account