美銀美林:上調微盟集團(02013.HK)目標價至20港元,維持“買入”評級
美銀美林近日發表研究報吿指出,微盟集團(02013.HK)近期宣佈將旗下兩大產品微商城和智慧零售進行功能升級,售價也相應進行調整,本輪產品升級將加速釋放增長潛能。美銀美林將微盟集團目標價上調至20港元,維持”買入“評級。
美銀美林表示,微盟集團的功能升級和提價措施將為SaaS收入提供了增量增長,預計基於智慧商城及智慧零售約50%的收入佔比,商家訂閲了修改後的服務計劃,預計未來兩年ARPU將額外提升15%。美銀美林認為價格調整將為商户帶來新的功能,其中包括會員管理,分析和營銷插件,價格調整產生的額外成本有限,並使得微盟集團能夠將其增量收入投資於研發。
美銀美林認為,微盟集團正處於中國商户數字化轉型的關鍵時期,並在向高端市場轉移(從微商城到智慧零售和智慧餐飲),會改善總體客户經濟效益(LTV/CAC),這加強了進一步擴大估值倍數的理由。
美銀美林將微盟集團FY21/22E SaaS收入提高了27%/28%,因為(1)公司整合了ERP收入2.4億元人民幣/2.76億元人民幣;(2)將SaaS ARPU估計值提高了5%/10%,公司將毛利率微調為+0.4ppt/+0.4 ppt,並在具有積極影響的價格上漲中抵消(1)報表合併的利潤稀釋;(2) 增加研發投入。公司的目標價為20港元(從13.2港元起),基於SOTP,包括(1)2022財年SaaS收入的16倍,高於SaaS平均水平的15倍,因為增長更快;和(2)2022財年15倍的精準營銷息税前利潤。
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