中國聯通(00762.HK):移動業務盈利回升,數字時代向流量內容轉型,給予“買入”評級,目標價6.76港元
機構:國元證券
評級:買入
目標價:6.76港元
投資要點:
電信行業競爭格局改善,營收重回增長軌道
我國移動通信市場已進入存量博弈階段。在提速降費基本進入尾聲的大背景下,運營商的競爭迴歸理性,營銷策略調整為優化客户結構,服務重心向高價值客户傾斜。產品定位迴歸於創造價值,利於運營商整體盈利能力提升。2020年1~11月,電信行業主營業務累計總收入1.25萬億元,同比增長3.5%,走出了2019年以來的下降軌道。
擁抱“新基建”,運營商從流量管道向流量內容轉型
5G、大數據、人工智能、雲計算、物聯網和區塊鏈等數字經濟為運營商帶來新的業務增長空間。2020年1~11月,我國電信行業固網業務收入同比增長11.6%。在消費互聯網階段,運營商完成了從語音向流量管道的轉型,在產業互聯網階段,運營商必須成為產業客户數字化轉型真正的使能者,這就要求運營商深入理解客户需求,完成向流量內容的轉型。
公司調整移動業務戰略,ARUP逐季提升
公司深化價值經營,從重點關注用户增長數量,改為重點關注用户發展質量和價值。2020年前3季度ARPU分別為40.0、41.8和43.1元/户/月。未來公司移動收入ARPU隨着5G客户滲透率提升大概率會繼續提高。
有序推進5G建設,數字時代發力創新業務
公司採用共建共享方式有序推進5G網絡建設,既能夠實現5G網絡質量與主導運營商基本相當,又能夠控制5G投資規模,規避5G投資回報週期長、應用場景不完全明確的風險。2020年H1,公司產業互聯網收入達226.73億元,同比增長35.6%,佔公司營業收入比例達到16.4%。未來IDC、IT服務、大數據、雲計算和物聯網有望持續高增長,拉動公司收入增長加速。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級,目標價6.76港元
公司傳統業務盈利基本面已進入中長期上升拐點,創新業務持續高增長,為公司未來增長打開空間。預測公司2020~2023年淨利潤分別為126.0(+10.79%)、145.4(+15.4%)、161.4(11.01%)和182.2(+12.87%)億元。當前公司估值處於歷史低位,合理價值應為2021年12倍PE,目標價為6.76港元/股,較當前價格有51%的上升空間,給予“買入”評級。

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