ESR(01821.HK)投資價值分析報告:天然稀缺的好賽道,能力優秀的領軍者,給予“買入”評級,目標價32.65港元
機構:中信證券
評級:買入
目標價:32.65港元
物流資產屬於需求旺盛而天然稀缺的資產,公司作為先發者,能力全面,壁壘穩固,我們看好公司的長期發展。我們採用分部估值法,得出公司目標價 32.65港元,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”的投資評級。
▍公司是亞太領先的現代物流地產開發商和基金管理人。公司核心管理團隊均具有豐富物流地產從業經歷,也深諳物流地產經營的成功經驗。在優秀管理團隊的加持之下,公司自成立以來,便獲得頂級長線投資人青睞,管理規模提升迅速。截止 2020 年 6 月 30 日,公司已經成為專注於亞太區的第一大物業地產運營商,資產網絡遍佈於中國、日本、韓國、新加坡、澳大利亞及印度,總資產管理規模達 265 億美元,總建築面積 1,870 萬平方米。
▍天然的稀缺資產,自穩固的護城河。現代物流地產具有諸多優點。其往往處於現代物流的幹線運輸核心節點,出租率高,穩定性亦強,抗經濟波動能力強。並且由於供需的存在結構性矛盾,屬於天然的稀缺資產。在資產壁壘,規模經濟和網絡效應的共同作用下,形成穩固的行業護城河,後發者難以超越。
▍投融管退能力全面,資本循環順暢。公司搭建了三大板塊構成的業務模型。形成了暢通的資金循環,實現輕資產平台發展模式的同時也為公司提供高度獨立於物業價值的穩定費用收入。相較於傳統的“開發-培育-出售”模式,公司在開發環節就開始募集資金,進一步提高了資本運作效率,也給股東帶來更多回報彈性。公司憑藉優秀歷史業績和豐富管理經驗,深得機構投資者信任,基金募資、債券募資均通道順暢,質地優良。
▍公司亦擁有高效率的資產運營體系。作為底層資產順利經營的基礎,公司拿地、建設、招商能力均突出,可滿足速度和質量的雙重需求。以最快的速度使建設物業達到穩定期或者出表標準,實現出表並回籠資金。
▍風險提示:各國團隊獨立經營的管控風險;淨利潤的再投資風險;供給側供應結構性增加的風險;網絡零售增長不及預期的風險。
▍公司能力領先,資產稀缺,給予“買入”的投資評級。物流資產屬於需求旺盛而天然稀缺的資產,公司作為先發者,能力全面,壁壘穩固。我們對公司輕重資產進行分部估值,得出公司目標價為 32.65 港元,首次覆蓋,給予公司“買入”的投資評級。

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