信義光能(00968.HK)：加速擴產支撐未來業績高增長，給予“持有”評級，目標價17.8港元
機構：國元國際
評級：持有
目標價：17.8港元
光伏玻璃產能放開，未來價格將回歸理性：
近日工信部工信部再發徵求意見稿，明確光伏壓延玻璃可不制定產能置換方案。我們認為產能放開，將增加光伏玻璃供應，光伏玻璃緊缺局面將逐步緩解，價格將理性迴歸；同時我們預期未來國家會出台相應實施細則，對企業環保能耗排放，技術標準指標作出明確規定，引導行業健康有序發展。
成功再配售集資，長遠市佔率目標 45%及以上：
基於產能放開政策預期，公司以每股 13 港元配售 3 億股，所得款項淨額將約 38.76 億港元，主要用於光伏玻璃新產線的資本開支。2020 年公司北海 2 條生產線已經如期投產，2021 年蕪湖 4 條 1000 噸產線，將於每個季度投產一條，張家港 4 條 1000 噸項目啟動中，計劃在 2022 年內全部投產。此外，公司遠期籌劃產能 16 條（包括蕪湖 12 條和北海 4 條）。公司 2020 年市佔率約 35%，未來將進一步達到 40-45%及以上。
行業景氣度持續，公司盈利高增長：
預期 2021 年一季度光伏玻璃仍將保持緊缺狀態，公司表示 12 月、1 月市場需求都還很旺，春節期間深加工會有些停產，而組件廠商還有生產需求，未來 2、3 個月價格會比較平穩。基於公司龐大的產能規劃目標，未來產量的增長將支撐公司業績持續高增長。
給予持有評級，提高目標價至 17.8 港元：
公司發佈盈喜預計2020年淨利潤將實現同比增長75%~95%，對應42~47億港元。我們根據公司產能投放進度和對玻璃價格理性迴歸的假設，初步預測 2021 年盈利同比增長 29.5%。結合行業內可比公司估值情況，提高公司目標價至 17.8 港元，相當於 2021 年和 2022 年 23 倍和 18 倍 PE，目標價較現價有 10%上升空間，給予持有評級。
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