郭明錤料明年iPhone 13将准时推出
着名苹果分析员郭明錤发表的报告指,iPhone 13量产时间将回归至过往相同,亦即将早於iPhone 12,意味着2021年的iPhone处理器世代转换时程早於2020年。而iPhone 12 Pro系列需求优於预期,故iPhone 12 Pro Max的广角CIS与iPhone 12 Pro系列的长焦CIS供应紧张故影响出货量。
他认为目前iPhone需求仍较安卓佳,亦未见iPhone需求转弱,据最新调查指出截至目前为止,iPhone零部件/代工组装出货预估变化,是因为季节性因素、iPhone 13/A15出货时间较iPhone 12/A14提早、与iPhone 12 Pro系列CIS缺货,而非需求转弱。
他认为市场近期关注台积电(TSM.US)生产iPhone处理器A14之5nm产能利用率在明年首季自100%下降至80%,并担忧这代表iPhone 12系列需求低於预期。但他认为预期明年首季的产能利用率能与今年第四季相同并维持在100%乃过度乐观的错误预期,若股价因错误的预期而修正,反有利近期股价反弹。他又将iPhone组装与零组件在明年首季的出货预估调升3–5%,在2Q21的出货预估虽自约5,100万部下修至4,500万部,但仍显着成长。
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