證券行業:多項改革方案發布,關注證券行業投資機會,維持“看好”評級
機構:山西證券
評級:看好
投資建議:
加強統籌規劃,着力提高直接融資比重。易會滿主席發文闡述十四五提高直接融資比重六大任務,包括全面實行股票發行註冊制,健全中國特色多層次資本市場體系,推動上市公司提高質量,深入推進債券市場創新發展,加快發展私募股權基金,大力推動長期資金入市。此外,《健全上市公司退市機制實施方案》審議通過,基礎制度建設進一步完善;《修訂銀行間債券市場債券交易流通有關公告(徵求意見稿)》發佈,進一步優化債券交易流通機制安排。提高直接融資佔比是一項系統工程,當前資本市場改革穩步推進,證券行業高質量發展可期。
市場回暖,關注證券板塊交易機會。截止週五(12月4日),證券指數上漲15.44%,落後於滬深300和創業板。券商個股行情分化,次新股、輕資產、高ROE的券商更受市場青睞,東方財富、國金證券、招商證券、光大證券、中信建投漲幅居前。近期市場回暖,上週,日均交易額8540億元,環比小幅增加4%;證券Ⅲ收漲2.5%,跑贏滬深300約0.8個百分點,作為貝塔屬性的板塊,券商或有交易性機會。
綜合來看,以註冊製為核心的資本市場改革是未來較長時間內推動券商板塊估值提升的重要因素,證券公司作為資本市場高質量發展的重要引擎,必將向着市場化、專業化、國際化繼續邁進,行業向好的長期趨勢不變。近期二級市場持續回暖,交易性機會更加凸顯,且當前證券板塊估值水平仍處於十年來證券板塊估值較低區域。個股上看,淨資本收益率較高的券商更受資本青睞,建議投資者關注。
風險提示:二級市場大幅下滑;疫情影響超出預期;資本市場改革不及預期。
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