中國飛鶴(06186.HK)：渠道控盤強力護航，維持“買入”評級
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
投資要點
增速平穩，庫存良性。由於今年十一雙節時間較長，各家奶粉公司進行了較為積極的備貨和促銷，雙十一等電商節也對奶粉的動銷具有較好的帶動作用，我們近期的渠道跟蹤顯示，飛鶴奶粉四季度以來的銷量增速仍然保持 30%的水平，且庫存較低，河北地區庫存天數在 30 天左右，並且其中15 天為在途庫存，即公司的發貨速度慢於終端動銷速度，處於供不應求的狀態。
渠道利潤率高，價格管控嚴格。根據草根調研，飛鶴奶粉的經銷商利潤率在 30%左右，其中 12%為執行 8 加 1 政策的補貼，其餘 17-18%為人員費用投入，主要包括對促銷人員的費用支持、對新客户的費用補貼（佔 60%）等。終端利潤率在 15-20%左右，在同等品牌實力的企業中屬於較高水平。同時，公司藉助前期大力投入的二維碼溯源系統，嚴格追溯每一罐奶粉的銷售流程，嚴懲竄貨亂價等行為，故渠道體系健康、價盤穩健，有利於公司長期的發展。
外資奶粉價盤控制能力差。由於上半年海外疫情較為嚴重，國內的消費者對於外資奶粉的偏愛有所下降，內資奶粉品牌飛鶴、君樂寶迅速搶佔份額，外資奶粉的全年任務目標完成難度較大，近期線下渠道已有部分外資品牌奶粉開始進行降價促銷。我們認為外資奶粉在中國低線市場滲透做的較差，不願意花力氣開發三四線市場的母嬰店渠道，並且線上和線下的價格混亂，線下經銷商為了完成業績指標可能低價在線上進行銷售，從而導致線上線下跨區域竄貨亂價的情況比較嚴重。從渠道管控能力來説，我們認為外資品牌與飛鶴的差距較大。
盈利預測：公司 2020-2022 年 EPS 分別為 0.61、0.85、1.08元，對應 2020年 12 月 2 日收盤價，PE 分別為 27、19、15 倍，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示：食品安全事件；新生兒數量不及預期；新品推廣不及預期。
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