美團-W(03690.HK)：3Q20業績強勁，憧憬社區團購新動能，維持“買入”評級，目標價348港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：348港元
美團 3Q20 業績亮眼，收入/調整後淨利潤同比增長 29％/6％（較市場預期高 4％/95％）。所有分部業績均超我們預期。我們看好社區團購 TAM，並期待美團發揮其供應鏈和流量優勢帶來進一步提升空間。4Q20 收入將持續加速。我們將收入預測上調 3％/8％/12％，目標價由 290 港元上調至 348 港元。
3Q20 業績強勁。3Q20 收入同比增速加快至 29％，較市場預期高 4％。經調淨利潤達 21 億元人民幣，較市場預期高 95％，主要是由於到店酒旅利潤率高於預期。分部來看，外賣/到店酒旅/新業務收入分別同比增長 33％/5％/43％（我們預期為27％/3％/23％），營業利潤率分別為 3.7％/43.0％/-24.7％。
4Q20 收入加速有望持續。美團第三季度各分部業務收入均錄得正增長。受益於強季節性和豐富的消費類別（例如夜宵、下午茶），外賣交易額/訂單量/平均訂單金額分別同比增長 36％/30％/4.5％（2Q20 為 17％/7％/9％），變現率為 13.6％ （2Q20 為 13.4％）。展望未來，我們預計 4Q20 外賣收入將同比增長 34％，運營利潤率為 3.1％。3Q20 到店酒旅收入同比增長 5％（2Q20 為-13％），疫情後首次實現正增長，其中國內酒店間夜量同比增長 4％（2Q20為-17％）。我們預計4Q20 該細分市場將實現雙位數增長，源於低線城市復甦較快及高端酒店持續擴張。
憧憬社區團購新動能。3Q20新業務收入同比增長 43％（2Q20 為 22％）。市場聚焦社區團購業務策略及競爭格局。疫情剛需+資本試錯催生社區團購千億市場。我們看好社區團購空間，各平台投資力度亦將加大。與同行的激進擴張策略相比，美團更加註重體系管理、能力提升（在覆蓋度的前提下），未來將持續發揮供應鏈優勢、地推能力及產品矩陣協同效應（美團優選+買菜+閃購）。其中，優選聚焦低線城市、買菜強在高線（平均訂單金額及利潤率較高），閃購高低線兼顧。我們預計中短期社區團購將依舊處於投入期，各平台將完善供應鏈體系及次日履約能力以構築差異化壁壘。
維持買入評級。我們上調 2020/21/22 財年收入預測 3％/8％/12％，並下調淨利潤預測 3％/12％/2％。我們基於分佈加總的新目標價為 348 港元（相當於 9.7 倍/7.3倍的 2021/22 財年預測市銷率）。看好美團長期增長態勢及結構性機遇（例如食雜零售、數字化運營）。
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