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浙江滬杭甬(00576.HK)2020三季報點評:最壞時刻已過去,車流恢復超預期,維持“增持”評級,目標價7.80港元
格隆匯 11-30 11:00

​機構:國泰君安

評級:增持

目標價:7.80港元

維持目標價,維持增持評級。浙江滬杭甬三季度車流量恢復超預期,我們小幅上調盈利預測至 2020-22 年歸母淨利潤 25.9/38.4/39.7 億元人民幣(此前預測為 24.1/38.1/39.4億元) 。公司治理優良,恢復強勁。此外,公司公告收購集團路產計劃,再投資不斷嘗試與突破。我們維持公司目標價7.80港元(除權後) ,維持增持評級。

受益於沿海經濟復甦,車流恢復強勁。三季度,得益於疫情後沿海地區的經濟恢復,公司多條路車流量同比增長恢復至10%以上。由於ETC折扣等因素,通行費收入增速略低於車流量增速。公路業務實現淨利潤約9.3億元,同比增長 9.4%。公司公路業務已經從上半年疫情與免費政策中恢復,免費政策帶來的負面影響後續大概率獲得補償。

整體利潤高於預期。三季度,證券業務與公司參股的金融企業盈利同比增長均超過20%。 公司整體歸母淨利潤19.8億元,同比增長 13.2%,超過我們此前的預期。

公告收購集團路產計劃,再次尋求突破。11月11日,公司公告,計劃收購集團持有的寧杭公司 30%股權以及龍麗麗龍公司 100%的股權。寧杭公司 2019 年淨利潤為 7.2 億元,若收購成功實施,預計寧杭公司將為公司將為公司帶來利潤提升。龍麗麗龍項目雖然短期內難以為公司直接帶來利潤,但其前期累積的虧損能夠用於税收的抵扣,對公司貼現價值沒有影響。

風險因素。證券與金融業務的走向難以判斷;補償政策的出台尚有不確定性;短期分紅受疫情影響的幅度尚不明確;再投資的節奏與結果存在不確定性。

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