廣汽集團(02238.HK)“十四五“規劃點評：自主品牌佈局逐漸明朗，維持“買入”評級，目標價11.8港元
機構：西部證券
評級：買入
目標價：11.8港元
廣汽集團發佈“十四五”規劃，計劃2025年挑戰350萬台銷量目標。11月20日廣汽集團在廣州車展發佈 “十四五”發展規劃綱要，具體內容包括：1）2025年集團將挑戰350萬台年銷量，隱含5年平均複合增速約11%，市佔率達12%，其中新能源產品佔比超過20%；2）2025年集團目標實現總營收超6000億元，利税總額超660億元；3）提升自主品牌研發能力，2023年實現L3應用，2024年量產L4，2025年實現特定場景下的L4商業運營；4）新能源方面，公司2025年實現全面電氣化，其中Aion聚焦電動車，傳祺有望加深和合資公司合作，深耕混動。
埃安宣佈獨立運營，自主品牌佈局逐漸明朗。廣汽新能源基於純電專屬平台GEP2.0打造Aion系列產品，並在今年推出ADiGO3.0自動駕駛系統，ADAS功能不輸新勢力競品。埃安品牌獨立運營後，一方面有利於公司整合產業資源，加大渠道和品牌建設力度，另一方面和傳祺分開披露業績，有利於市場重估公司新能源業務價值。傳祺方面，公司預計2021年推出轎車EMPOW55和GS8換代，2022年推出GS4姐妹款車型。作為GPMA架構下首款A+級轎車，EMPOW55採用大溜背設計，設計語言更年輕，GS8換代有望搭載豐田THS混動系統，推出HEV版本，進一步提振銷量。
日系新品週期仍在中途，維持“買入”評級。疫情衝擊之下低油耗、高保值率的日系品牌市佔率持續提升。廣豐全新A+級轎車凌尚、SUV鋒蘭達預計2021年上市，廣本首款純電轎車EA6於廣州車展亮相，預計後續新 品 導 入 計 劃 也 將 提 速 。 我 們 調 整 2020/2021/2022 年 淨 利 潤 至81.4/113.8/126.3億元，主要反映自主品牌更樂觀的新品展望，目標價調高至11.8港元，基於2021年9倍預期市盈率。
風險提示：疫情擴散進度超預期、新品銷售不及預期、產品召回風險。
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