廣汽集團(02238.HK)：新能源品牌獨立運營，催化公司價值重估，維持“增持”評級，目標價15港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：15港元
本報告導讀：
公司的新能源品牌獨立運營，催化市場重估公司新能源業務的價值，並且加速市場認知自主傳祺品牌的恢復。
摘要：
上調目標價至 15 港元（原為 11.2 港元），維持“增持”評級。考慮疫情對公司自主品牌恢復的延後，略微下調公司 2020/21/22 年的 EPS預測為 0.79(-0.13)/0.94(-0.20)/1.29 港元，參考可比公司估值（吉利汽車 15.3 倍，長城汽車 H 為 16.4 倍），給予公司 2021 年 16 倍 PE，目標價 15 港元。
新能源的獨立運營，催化市場對公司的價值重估。一方面，新能源品 牌的獨立運營，催化市場重估公司新能源業務的價值。2020 年以來，新勢力車企市值不斷攀升，市場對獨立運營的新能源車企給予較高的預期。另一方面，新能源品牌的獨立運營，加速市場認知自主傳祺品牌的恢復。自主本部的虧損，是過去壓制公司股價的核心因素之一，新能源品牌的獨立運營，使市場單獨評估公司自主傳祺的業績和價值，不再受新能源板塊的虧損壓制。
橫向對比：公司新能源品牌實力比肩新勢力，估值充滿潛力。當前市場對新能源汽車領域的認知氛圍良好 2020 年以來，新能源車企市值持續攀升，特斯拉最高市值接近 5000 億美元，蔚來最高市值超過 700億美元，新能源品牌獨立運營後，催化市場以新的視角認知業務價值。
縱向對比：公司新能源品牌的獨立運營，顯示出公司發展新能源的決心，且有利於新能源品牌的孵化。如果新能源品牌長期在集團體內，容易受到傳統部門和傳統資源分配慣性的制約。公司 2025 年銷售目標為 350 萬輛，新能源汽車產品佔整車產銷規模超 20%，自主品牌全面實現電氣化。
風險提示：新能源品牌的經營發展存在不確定性，廣汽菲克虧損拖累公司價值重估。
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