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電能實業(00006.HK):監管重置有望迎來更好結果,給予“收集“評級,目標價45.00港元
格隆匯 11-20 09:36

機構:國泰君安

評級:收集

目標價:45.00港元

電能實業(“PAH”或“公司”)的股票屬於香港最具防守性的公用類股票之一,公司超 過 90%的盈利來自於擁有較高監管透明度以及穩定性的司法管轄區。隨着最近一輪監管重置接近尾聲,公司盈利前景趨於穩定,而繼英國競爭和市場管理局對於四間水務公司有關價格管制的上訴作出利好暫定裁決後,英國 RIIO-GD2 的最終決議有望迎來更好結果(RIIO-GD2 為明年 4 月起執行的英國燃氣分銷價格管制計劃)。

我們預計公司 2020-2022 年股東淨利分別為 63.08 億港元(同比降 11.5%)、60.49 億港元(同比降 4.1%)和 61.22 億港元(同比增 1.2%),反映了新冠疫情帶來的影響以及超低利率環境下監管准許回報有所下降的情況。我們預計 2020-2022 年每股派息分別為2.800 港元(同比持平)、2.352 港元(同比降 16.0%)和 2.352 港元(同比持平),盡 管公司自 2006 年來尚未削減過每股派息(特別股息除外)。

“收集”,目標價 45.00 港元。我們看好電能實業較高的防禦性及其具有吸引力的 2021年股息率(5.7%,高於 10 年美國國債收益率 481 個基點)。電能實業目前股價對應 1.0倍 2021 年市淨率,低於其兩年平均前瞻市淨率超過 1 個標準差。我們的目標價較我們用DCF 方法得出的估值(51.44 港元/股)有 12.5%的折讓,並分別對應 1.1 倍和 15.9 倍 2021年市淨率和市盈率。

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