中國電力(02380.HK)：高股息率凸顯長期投資價值，維持“買入”評級，目標價2.18港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：2.18港元
投資要點
2020年 3季度水電發力，發電量同比增長 45.71%：2020年前9個月的合併總售電量為約6,456萬兆瓦時， 同比減少 0.59%；2020年第三季度合併總售電量為約2,458.04萬兆瓦時，同比增長8.37%，其中火電同比減少6.72%，水電同比增長45.71%，風電同比增長15.55%，光伏同比增長 36.53%。基於上半年水電錶現欠佳，預計 2020 年全年水電發電量將與 2019 年大致相當。
未來清潔能源裝機佔比持續快速提升：截至 2020年6月30 日，公司清潔能源包括水電、風電、光伏發電及天然氣發電的權益裝機容量合共為 8,085.5 兆瓦，佔權益裝機容量約36.37%。公司上半年新增風電裝機 66.7 兆瓦，光伏裝機 508.7 兆瓦。目前公司風電和光伏在建項目近 3GW，預期未來公司清潔能源佔比將快速提升。
附屬五凌電力回購沅江公司股權，影響正面：2020 年10月 29日，公司附屬五凌電力就行使原股東選擇權，簽訂了股權轉讓確認函，以行使價人民幣 30 億元回購華寶信託(持有沅江公司34.32%權益)及農銀金融(持有沅江公司 6.86%權益)所持有的沅江權益。我們認為， 且沅江公司的財務業績將繼續並表，並不影響公司財務業績。而沅江公司股權收回後，其非控股股東權益終止後，公司將不再與其他實體分享潛在經濟回報，有利於改善公司經營現金流，影響正面。
給予買入評級，維持目標價 2.18 港元：公司 2020年PE約7.0倍，PB約0.50 倍，股息率高達 9.7%，公司低估值，高派息，凸顯長期投資價值。我們結合行業內可比公司估值情況，維持目標價 2.18港元，相當於 2021年和 2022 年7.0 倍和5.0倍PE，目標價較現價有 38%上升空間，維持買入評級。
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