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深度回調的疫苗板塊,還有機會嗎?
格隆匯 11-13 17:45

流感疫苗一針難求,新冠疫苗的進展也是全球期待,康泰生物通過三種路徑對新冠疫苗進行研發,與阿斯利康合作的腺病毒載體疫苗今年產能預計可以達到1億劑,2021年有望達到2億劑;公司自主研發的滅活疫苗(Vero細胞)在9月29日獲批進入臨牀I期階段,公司的新冠滅活疫苗車間已經完成建設,開始調試、試生產和認證的工作。

康泰生物的股價自8月後一直承壓,在新冠疫苗概念沒有落地前,公司管線的業績就成為了支撐股價的核心,這一次的另類數據,推出了康泰生物的疫苗批簽發數據整理及統計,及時跟蹤核心品種批簽發的變化,為業績預測給予支持。

1、這是什麼數據指標?

疫苗作為生物製品,對於安全性的要求極高,每生產一個批次都要抽樣送中檢院批簽發,經過檢測合格後,該批次取得批簽發許可,方可上市進行銷售。因此,批簽發的數量決定了市場的供給量,中檢院批簽發數據每週會更新一次,我們對其數據進行整理統計。

2、得到了這個數據指標有什麼用?

跟蹤疫苗批簽發情況,尤其是核心品種的批籤量,如果出現快速增長,意味着該品種的銷售較為景氣,比如今年康泰的23價肺炎疫苗在前三個季度批簽發達到243.7萬支,同比增長172.98%,這為上市的第二年,放量增速非常的顯著。

3、怎麼使用這個數據指標?

跟蹤觀察公司疫苗的每月批簽發量的變化,用於對未來預測全年銷售量給予數據支持。

4、數據趨勢變動點評?

23價肺炎疫苗今年是上市第二年,前三季度批簽發增速顯著,共批簽發243.7萬支,同比增長172.98%,佔市場總批簽發的24.47%。

核心品種四聯苗(無細胞百白破b型流感嗜血桿菌聯合疫苗)批簽發466.5萬支,同比增長84.85%,且四聯苗因為進行了包裝的更替,升級為預填式包裝,中標價提高至368元/瓶,比西林瓶的280元/瓶有所提高,中標省份已經達到27個,Q3因為有招標準入的影響,Q4預計會加速放量。

乙肝疫苗和麻風二聯苗因為生產基地搬遷的原因,導致沒有批簽發的數據,預計明年乙肝疫苗會有所恢復。

重磅福利

格隆匯隆重推出“投資研究羣”系列,每一隻有投資價值的公司我們都會建立微信羣,為投資者提供交流分享的平台。在這裏,你會遇到和你持有/深度關注同一只股票的投資者,可以彼此交流投資邏輯,分享觀點,更好地挖掘信息,實現價值。

今天我們推出“康泰生物-投資研究羣”,歡迎掃碼添加客服小姐姐(ID:guruclub_26)申請入羣!

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