《大行報告》摩通升郵儲行(01658.HK)評級至「增持」 降信行(00998.HK)至「中性」
摩根大通發表的研究報告指,內銀第三季盈利勢頭各異,估計情況將持續至2021年,由於息口環境似乎將繼續受壓,估計費用收入及信貸成本將繼續是盈利增長的引擎,將中信銀行(00998.HK)評級由「增持」降至「中性」,目標價由5.1元降至3.7元,其A股評級則由「中性」降至「減持」,主要考慮到公司費用的組合不利,加上不良貸款組成風險亦高於同業等,目標價由4.9元人民幣下調至5.15元人民幣;將郵儲銀行(01658.HK)評級由「中性」升至「增持」,目標價由4.1元升至5.2元,估計費用收入增長及資產質素改善可帶動盈利增長復甦。
該行指出第三季內銀盈利呈3%的負增長,但各家銀行表現亦相異,當中郵儲行盈利按年增長13%,但信行則按年跌9%,當中的差異主要是源於雙方費用收入的表現不同,加上減值開支亦有差異。該行指出考慮到通縮風險及市場利率維持低位,料淨息差上行空間有限,估計資產增長仍然會是淨利息收入的主要增長引擎,所以貸存比率較低的銀行將較有利。而在費用方面,由於監管機構加大對信用卡業務的監管,所以費用收入中銀行卡費用佔較高比例的銀行復甦勢頭將較慢。而收入組合中清盤等比例較高的銀行則有機會受惠出口及貿易活動改善。
該行指出在資產質素方面,信行第三季不良貸款比率按季升15個基點,而郵儲行則按季跌1個基點,認為勢頭相異的情況會持續至2021年,相比之下信行在逾期貸款及不良貸款比率中有最大的差距,反映在認定不良貸款方面並不嚴厲。(el/a) ~
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