《季績前瞻》券商料友邦(01299.HK)第三季新業務價值跌29% 聚焦內地拓展步伐
券商摩根士丹利及瑞信均預料友邦保險(01299.HK)將於下周一(9日)開市前公布今年第三季新業務摘要，受到新冠疫情及本港離岸業務持續疲弱拖累，本網綜合5間券商預測，按固定匯率(CER)計，友邦今年第三季錄得新業務價值介乎6.66億美元至7.4億美元，較2019年同期9.8億美元，按年下跌25%至32%，中位數7億美元按年跌29%。
券商指將投資者關注香港業務復蘇步伐、會否受到新冠疫情反覆波及，並留意公司在內地業務的拓展及增長表現，就友邦早前宣布友邦中國獲中銀保監批准在四川籌建分公司，市場亦會關注友邦中國最新在內地業務拓展計劃及指引等
【香港存挑戰 注內地步伐】
瑞信估計，友邦第三季新業務價值錄7.24億美元，按固定匯率計按年跌26%，對比市場同業預測跌介乎28%至30%，料友邦中國年化新保費季內表現良好，但估計本港業務續受挑戰，毛利受壓，但相信東亞南市場會有所改善。而高盛料友邦上季新業務價值(按固定匯率計)按年跌32%，料香港業務新業務價值按年下滑70%、估計內地市場新業務價值按年上升2%、料泰國、新加坡及馬來西亞業務新業務價值按年各跌25%、22%及31%。
瑞銀發表研究報告指，預期友邦第三季新業務價值將下跌30%，主要是因為香港及內地的關口仍未重開所致，雖料其今年第三季的業績將意味復甦進度較預期慢，指投資者將關注香港業務復蘇步伐、會否受到新冠疫情反覆所波及，及留意公司在內地業務的拓展及增長表現，及會否提及在內地業務的產品組合及「開門紅」計劃等。
摩根士丹利估計，友邦今年第三季新業務價值按年跌幅會由上半年跌37%，季內跌幅收窄至25%，料外匯因素影響輕微正面，估計受到年化新保費按年下滑13%及毛利率較低所拖累。
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本網綜合5間券商預測，按固定匯率(CER)計，友邦今年第三季錄得新業務價值介乎6.66億美元至7.4億美元，較2019年同期9.8億美元，按年下跌25%至32%，中位數7億美元按年跌29%。
券商│今年第三季新業務價值預測(按固定匯率(CER)計)│按年變幅
摩根士丹利│7.4億美元│-24.5%
瑞信│7.24億美元│-26.1%
摩根大通│7億美元│-29%
瑞銀│6.85億美元│-30%
高盛│6.66億美元│-32%
按友邦2019年第三季新業務價值9.8億美元推算
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