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中國財險(02328.HK):2020年第三季度承保惡化,給予“中性“評級,目標價5.80港元
格隆匯 11-03 21:19

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價:5.80港元

中國財險(02328 HK)的承保在 2020 年第三季度惡化,差於我們的預期。總保費在 2020年首 3 季度增長 3.6%,相當於 2020 年第三季度增長 1.8%。2020 年首三季度的淨利潤下 滑 21.1%,相當於 2020 年第三季度下滑 17.8%。車險保費增 10.5%,而非車險保費跌13.0%。2020 年第三季度的非車險保費的下降是由於信用保證險保費的減少。在 2020 年第三季度,賠付率降 4.4 個百分點至 65.0%,而費用率升 6.5 個百分點至 35.4%。 綜合成本率升 2.0 個百分點至 100.5%。因此,2020 年首 3 季度的承保利潤減少了 15.5%。2020年首 3 季度的車險/融資類信用保證險/政策保險/商業非車險的綜合成本率分別為 96.4%/139.8%/ 99.7%/ 96.4%。

綜改後車險正面臨嚴峻的環境。管理層表示,車險綜合改革後的車均保費較改革前下降了23%。由於中小型保險公司傾向於以較低的費率吸引客户,綜改導致了車險市場的激烈競爭。因此,短期內車險保費的增長應該會面臨一些壓力。儘管公司表示改革後車險的綜合成本率展望穩定,但我們認為由於費率降低,綜合成本率最終將增加。

下調目標價至 5.80 港元並維持“中性”評級。我們下調目標價至 5.80 港元,相當於 0.61倍 2020 年市淨率。車險綜合改革將為車險帶來不確定性。與融資類信用保證險相關的賠付將繼續影響非車險綜合成本率。此外,由 2020 年下半年自然災害引發的賠付也是另一個令人擔憂的問題。因此,我們的投資評級仍為“中性”。

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