中國人民保險集團(01339.HK)：壽險改革趨勢向好，財險負面影響減弱，維持“增持”評級，目標價3.94港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
目標價：3.94港元
本報告導讀：
前三季度壽險業務主動調整結構使得保費規模小幅下降，預計公司聚焦高價值的戰略將有利於 NBV提升；財險業務兩大短期因素導致綜合成本率小幅上升，維持增持。
摘要：
維持“增持”評級，維持目標價 3.94港元/股，對應2020年 P/B為 0.75倍：受制於19年所得税減免高基數影響，公司2020年前三季度歸母淨利潤21,368億元，同比下降 12.3%，扣除所得税因素，當期税前利潤 308.89 億元，同比提升 7.8%，符合市場預期。考慮到當前車險綜合改革以實施，短期財險公司保費充足度將明顯下降，下調 2020-2022年EPS為0.49(0.52, -6.6%)/0.51(0.53, -4.4%)/0.56(0.57, -2.2%)元。
壽險業務結構主動調整致保費規模小幅下降，預計對 NBV 帶來正向貢獻：公司前三季度壽險原保險保費收入 821.17 億元，同比下降5.3%，預計主要為壽險轉型背景下主動調整業務節奏所致。從產品結構來看，公司前三季度新單中期交首年保費佔比為 43%，同比提升 7個百分點，而價值貢獻較低的躉交及短期險佔比下降至 56%，我們認為，公司主動調整業務結構、聚焦高價值保單的銷售戰略將有利於長期可持續發展，預計對NBV 帶來正向貢獻。
信保業務賠付增加及車險綜改前加大費用投入致綜合成本率小幅上升：2020年前三季度財險綜合成本率 98.4%，同比提升 0.5pt，符合市場預期，預計主要兩大原因：1）2019 年存續的低質量信保業務尚有部分未完成處置，短期仍造成賠付壓力。考慮到公司當前正大幅壓縮信保業務規模，前三季度信保同比下降 71.2%，僅存 52.03 億元，預計後續信保對綜合成本率的負面影響將大幅減弱。 2） 三季度面臨車險綜合改革新老切換，改革前夕各家公司為搶佔客户資源總體上加大費用投入，預計短期車險費用率明顯提升，但隨着當前車險綜合改革的順利實施，後續財險公司為實現承保盈利預計將大幅壓縮費用使用，後續這一壓制綜合成本率的短期因素將消除。
催化劑：渠道人力量質齊升。
風險提示：壽險轉型不及預期；車險綜合改革後賠付率高於預期；開門紅不及預期。
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