中糧肉食(01610.HK)：出欄量逐季提升 養殖效率已處較高水平，給予“買入”評級，目標價4.1港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：4.1港元
投資要點
Q3生豬出欄量繼續環比提升，全年出欄有望超200萬頭：
2020Q3，公司生豬出欄量63.7萬頭，同比大幅增長140.0%，環比+29.2%；前三季度，生豬出欄量合計143.8萬頭，同比下降16.3%；考慮到生豬出欄環比持續改善的預期，公司全年超過200萬頭出欄指引的可能性極高；而公司將以利潤最大化為原則，採取靈活的出欄策略，最終出欄量也取決於仔豬的銷售情況。
預期豬價温和下行，養殖效率已處於較高水平：
2020Q3，公司商品豬銷售均價35.14元/公斤，同比+58.1%，環比+14.7%；考慮到復產節奏、非洲豬瘟及進口量等影響，預期短期內生豬供應仍然偏緊，豬價將處於温和下行通道。截至三季度末，公司母豬存欄25萬頭以上，其中能繁超過20萬頭，後備接近5萬頭，已達到現有設計產能規模，養殖效率亦處於歷史較高水平，綜合頭均利潤超過2100元。預期伴隨出欄量的持續提升，成本將繼續被攤薄，頭均利潤有望處於業內領先水平。
品牌生鮮佔比持續提升，建議更名大力發展品牌業務：
9月公司發佈公告建議公司名稱由「中糧肉食控股有限公司」更名為「中糧家佳康食品有限公司」，凸顯其大力發展品牌業務的決心。2020Q3生鮮豬肉業務中品牌收入佔比達38.2%，同比+7.6%，環比+1.3%，公司生鮮豬肉家佳康品牌已逐漸獲得市場認可。現階段作為規模養殖的黃金髮展期，產業鏈利潤將更多向下游轉移，伴隨公司對家佳康品牌的持續投入及市場認可度的持續提高，品牌生鮮有望為公司帶來可觀利潤。
維持“買入”評級，目標價4.1港元：
我們持續看好在有效的成本和防疫管控下，養殖效率已處較高水平的中糧肉食有望獲得領先行業的頭均利潤及收益表現。我們預期2020-2021年EPS分別為1.04/1.06元，目標價4.1港元，對應2021年3.5倍PE，較現價有48.0%的漲幅，維持“買入”評級。
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