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綠色動力環保(01330.HK):2020 年第三季運營表現優於預期,維持“買入”評級,目標價5.50 港元
格隆匯 10-20 14:26

機構:中泰國際

評級:買入

目標價:5.50 港元 

第三季垃圾進廠量和上網電量分別同比上升 30.6%及 51.5%

公司上週五(10 月 16 日)公佈優於預期的 2020 年第三季運營數據。垃圾進廠量和上網電量分別同比上升 30.6%及 51.5%至 245 萬噸和 7.77 億度,佔我們全年預測的 28.6%及31.4%,高於 2019 年同期的 26.1%和 24.3%實際比率 (見圖表 1)。

首三季垃圾進廠量和上網電量則分別同比增長 22.9%及 39.0%

換言之,首三季垃圾進廠量和上網電量分別同比上升 22.9%及 39.0%至 643 萬噸和 19.16億度,佔我們全年預測的 75.1%及 77.4%,也高於去年同期的 72.7%和 65.2%實際比率。

維持目標價,重申“買入”評級,等待 10 月底公佈首三季業績

優於預期的運營表現有利短期股價。我們重申,公司今明兩年大幅增加產能是中長期投資亮點,預計年底運營垃圾處理能力分別同比增長 34.9%和 19.7%。待公司在 10 月底公佈首三季業績後,我們將檢視我們的財務模型。我們目前不調整盈利預測,並維持貼現現金流分析(DCF) 推算的 5.50 港元目標價 (見圖表 2 和 3),這對應 10.9 倍 2021 年市盈率和 41.4%上升空間。重申“買入”評級。

風險提示:(一)項目延誤、(二)應收賬款風險、(三)併網電價下跌、(四)運營成本上升。

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