信義光能(00968.HK)福萊特(06865.HK)彈逾3%及5%
福萊特玻璃(06865.HK)繼本月9日升至28.6元紀錄高位遇阻掉頭向下,昨天跌至19.8元獲承接後,今天股價扭四連跌重越20天線(21元),最高見21.5元,現造21元,回升5.3%,成交540萬股,涉資1.13億元。
信義光能(00968.HK)繼本月8日升至15.22元紀錄高遇阻後,掉頭反覆回落至接近20天線(12.15元)獲支持,今日扭三連跌,股價高見13.18元,現造12.84元,回升3.2%,成交1,595萬股。
大和昨天表示,信義光能股價於過去兩個月累升56%,主因是太陽能玻璃價格自7月起累升60%。不過,由於在供應增加情況下玻璃價格進一步上升空間有限,該行相信市場情緒已大致反映,而且因供需動態改善,預期太陽能玻璃價格在明後年或會調整,故調低公司明後年每股盈測8%-11%,以反映新的產品均價假設。此外,由於信義光能現時估值高企,短期或面對投資者鎖定利潤壓力;若撇除太陽能發電場業務後現估值相當於明年預測市賬率10倍,對比福萊特玻璃僅6倍計,前者估值高出約70%,在毛利率相若下,預料兩者估值差距會收窄。因此,大和將信義光能目標價由16元調低至13.5元,評級由「跑贏大市」降至「持有」。
另外,高盛上周四指,根據市場數據,3.2mm及2.0mm太陽能玻璃均價自9月起,已分別累升23%及17%至每平方米37元及28元人民幣。該行相信,太陽能玻璃需求強勁主因是雙面模塊滲透率上升,尤其是在海外市場,留意到在上半年出口模塊中,滲透率達40%。由於海外市場均售價上升,相信大部分模組生產商將優先考慮海外需求,這或會進一步推動太陽能玻璃的出貨量。為了反映雙面玻璃解決方案採用度加快,該行將行業未來三年的太陽能玻璃需求預測及均售價分別上調5%-7%及15%-32%。同時,為了反映均售價上升預期,該行將福萊特玻璃及信義光能未來兩年盈測分別調高11%-38%及3%-30%,目標價分別由原先20元及12%,升至30元及15%,評級皆為「買入」。
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