《大行报告》汇丰研究:内地信贷增长较快 行业趋势最利好农行及邮储银行
汇丰研究发表报告,指出内银信贷增长相对较快,9月全行业信贷按月增长1.1%,按年增12.8%。根据目前的速度,若第四季的增长速度与去年同期相若,相信信贷增长可在今年维持12.8%。该行又指,社会融资规模存量按年增长13.5%,高於市场预期,主要是得益於信贷及债券增长。
该行相信,当局仍会继续采取温和宽松立场,直至市场对宏观经济持续复苏的信心增加,以及在明年首季尾之前不良贷款的生成仍受控。同时,相信决策者会通过选择性收紧来平衡市场。
另外,存款竞争或在第四季度逐步开始,很可能是在定期存款方面,而这发展将有助於拥有更强存款特许经营权的银行,例如农业银行(01288.HK)及邮储银行(01658.HK)。该行指,内银存款按年增长0.8%,增速较信贷增长为慢。人民币贷存比率按年增加0.3个百分点,今年来增0.9个百分点至80.2%。该行提到,人行在5月份之前未有进一步安排有针对性的降准,贷款基础利率自4月20日起保持稳定,最新的7天平均回购利率自5月的低位增加87个基点至最新的约2.2%。
该行维持对内地银行温和正面的态度,由於资产质量不确定,因此避免采取进取的乐观看法。相信最新的发展情况较利好农行及邮储行,目标价分别为3.9元及4元,投资评级均为「买入」。
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