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《大行报告》大和:人行允宏观杠杆率上升 信贷条件利内银 看好建行等三股
阿思达克 10-16 11:57
大和发表报告表示,人民银行近日公布9月份社会融资规模存量按年升13.5%,9月末人民币贷款余额按年升13%,该行亦指内地9月社会融资规增量3.48万亿人民币、新增人民币贷款增加1.9万亿人民币,指两数据均优於预期。

该行指,内地社会融资规模存量增长加快,同时人民币贷款增长稳定,相信目前信贷环境对内银股有利,同时相信可支持内地自身的经济增长。

大和称,人行在简报中预计中国今年第三季经济按年增速,可较第二季(按年升3.2%)有所加快,认为当前的信贷增长合理,并应允许宏观杠杆率暂时上升。该行预计内地社会融资规模存量余额增长将在今年第四季度达到近期高点,还估计今年第四季度贷款按年增速将保持在13%的水平。

该行表示,当前的国内信贷条件对内银股有利,预示内地经济增长趋势,并推介建行(00939.HK)(予「买入」评级),因为其在四大银行中的资产扩张较强,该行还看好中行(03988.HK)(予「跑赢大市」评级)和中信银行(00998.HK)(予「买入」评级)的交易机会,指两股2021年预测市账率分别为0.34倍和0.26倍的超低水平。

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